January 2020 – Mad Scientist Laboratory

January 30, 2020January 30, 2020

206. “The Convergence” – An Army Mad Scientist Podcast

[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to announce the latest episode of “The Convergence” podcast, featuring an interview with Dr. Margarita Konaev. Please note that this podcast and several of the embedded links below are best accessed via a non-DoD network — Enjoy!]

The second episode of “The Convergence” is out now! In this latest episode, we talk to Dr. Margarita Konaev, research fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). Dr. Konaev has written extensively on such topics as Russian military innovation in emerging technologies, urban warfare in the Middle East, Russia, and Eurasia, as well as military applications of artificial intelligence.

Previously, Dr. Konaev was a Non-Resident Fellow with the Modern War Institute at West Point, a post-doctoral fellow at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House. Before joining CSET, Dr. Konaev worked as a Senior Principal in the Marketing and Communication practice at Gartner. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Notre Dame, an M.A. in Conflict Resolution from Georgetown University, and a B.A. from Brandeis University

Click here to listen to Dr. Konaev in our latest podcast episode of “The Convergence,”…

… stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory as we will be releasing a new podcast every other week with exciting and impactful guests,…

… and listen to our premier episode of “The Convergence” with Dr. Sean McFate.

The purpose of “The Convergence” is to explore technological, economic, and societal trends that disrupt the operational environment and to obtain a diversity of opinions regarding the changing character of warfare. You too can help Mad Scientist expand the U.S. Army’s understanding of the operational environment — join the 549 others who have already done so and take a few minutes to complete our short, on-line Global Perspectives Conference Survey. Check out our initial findings here and stay tuned to future blog posts on the Mad Scientist Laboratory to learn what further insights we will have gleaned from this survey about operational environment trends, challenges, technologies, and disruptors.

January 27, 2020January 24, 2020

205. Mad Scientist Global Perspectives in the Operational Environment Virtual Conference

In our on-going effort to broaden our aperture on the Operational Environment (OE), the U.S. Army’s Mad Scientist Initiative is co-hosting the Global Perspectives in the Operational Environment Virtual Conference with the Army Futures Command (AFC) and the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) International Army Programs Directorate (IAPD) this Wednesday, 29 January 2020.

Recognizing that future engagements are likely be fought within a larger coalition of allied and partner nations, Mad Scientist appreciates the fact that we must understand diverse, international perspectives regarding the OE and the changing character of war. This is fundamental to our continued ability to successfully conduct future military operations together and to preclude us from falling victim to our own confirmation biases, risking total surprise by something lurking just over the horizon, beyond our own line of sight!

Working with TRADOC’s Foreign Liaison Officer community, Mad Scientist has invited international subject matter experts to present their respective nations’ perspectives on a diverse array of topics affecting the OE — check out the conference agenda here!

Mark your calendar now and plan on joining us at the conference on-line via live-streaming audio and video at www.tradoc.army.mil/watch, starting at 0830 EST this Wednesday, 29 January 2020. You can participate in the conference by submitting your questions and comments via this site’s moderated interactive chat room and follow along on Twitter @ArmyMadSci

In conjunction with this conference, Mad Scientist is conducting an on-line survey querying your thoughts about the OE. If you are one of the hundreds of individuals that have already completed this survey — please accept our hearty “Thank you!” If you haven’t had a chance to do so yet — no worries! Please take about 5 minutes to complete this short survey here — we want to capture your unique thoughts and insights to help expand the U.S. Army’s understanding of the OE!

Note that we will provide a Survey Quick Look of our preliminary findings at the outset of Wednesday’s conference, so don’t miss out!

… and stay tuned to future blog posts on the Mad Scientist Laboratory to learn what insights we will have gleaned from this conference and survey regarding what the international community is thinking about potential OE trends, challenges, technologies, and disruptors.

January 23, 2020February 5, 2021

204. Major Trends in Russian Military Unmanned Systems Development for the Next Decade

[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory has previously described how unmanned systems, including advanced battlefield robotic systems acting both autonomously and as part of a wider trend in man-machine teaming, will account for a significant percentage of combatant forces in the future. Earlier this month, the U.S. Army awarded contracts for four Robotic Combat Vehicle-Light (RCV-L) and four RCV-Medium (RCV-M) prototypes for testing in late 2021. In today’s post, returning guest blogger and proclaimed Mad Scientist Sam Bendett explores three trends associated with Russian battlefield autonomous systems — read on to learn how this near-peer competitor is embracing this game changing technology!]

The next 10 years will be significant for the Russian military, as it will begin to capitalize on the fruits of its previous decades of labor – the investment in new technologies, testing and evaluation of new weapons and systems, and conceptualizing the future of warfare and Russia’s place in the rapidly evolving art of war. There are three major Russian trends to observe in the next ten years. The first is the emphasis on Russia’s development and use of unmanned combat systems.

Russian Orion-E Medium-Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), made by Kronstadt Technologies / Source: TRADOC G-2’s ODIN **Worldwide Equipment Guide**

Russia’s Syria experience — and monitoring the U.S. use of unmanned systems for the past two decades — convinced the Ministry of Defense (MOD) that its forces need more expanded unmanned combat capabilities to augment existing Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) systems that allowed Russian forces to observe the battlefield in real time. The next decade will see Russia complete the testing and evaluation of an entire lineup of combat drones that were in different stages of development over the previous decade. They include the heavy Ohotnik combat UAV (UCAV); mid-range Orion that was tested in Syria; Russian-made Forpost, a UAV that was originally assembled via Israeli license; mid-range Korsar; and long-range Altius that was billed as Russia’s equivalent to the American Global Hawk drone. All of these UAVs are several years away from potential acquisition by armed forces, with some going through factory tests, while others graduating to military testing and evaluation. These UAVs will have a range from over a hundred to possibly thousands of kilometers, depending on the model, and will be able to carry weapons for a diverse set of missions.

Uran-9 UGV / Source: http://vitalykuzmin.net via Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International

The Russian ground forces have also been testing a full lineup of Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs), from small to tank-sized vehicles armed with machine guns, cannon, grenade launchers, and sensors. Today, the MOD is conceptualizing how such UGVs could be used in a range of combat scenarios, including urban combat. And at sea, Russia is looking to field a lineup of Unmanned Underwater and Surface Vehicles (UUVs/USVs) that will give Russian vessels and maritime assets greater ISR range and capability, along with key ASW, de-mining, and even combat characteristics. In fact, there are potential plans to equip naval ships with air, surface, and subsurface unmanned systems, making each vessel in the Russian Navy a carrier and user of unmanned technology.

Russian Minister of Defense Shoigu briefs President Putin on the ERA technopark in 2018 / Source: en.kremlin.ru

Another significant trend is the gradual shift from manual control over unmanned systems to a fully autonomous mode, perhaps powered by a limited Artificial Intelligence (AI) program. The Russian MOD has already communicated its desire to have unmanned military systems operate autonomously in a fast-paced and fast-changing combat environment. While the actual technical solution for this autonomy may evade Russian designers in this decade due to its complexity, the MOD will nonetheless push its developers for near-term results that may perhaps grant such fighting vehicles limited semi-autonomous status. The MOD would also like this AI capability be able to direct swarms of air, land, and sea-based unmanned and autonomous systems. To get to the right solutions, the MOD has opened centers and institutions tasked with hi-tech weapons development and testing. This includes Russia’s own DARPA-like agency, the Advanced Research Foundation, where AI and swarming technologies are developed; and the ERA technopark that is managed by the MOD.

Orlan-10 UAV / Source: Mil.ru (Russian Federation MOD) via Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Finally, in the coming decade the Russian defense industry will start competing with leading military exporters in offering their own unmanned/autonomous military solutions to potential customers. While the Russian Federation may be the world’s second largest arms exporter, only a handful of states today have a current lock on the unmanned systems market – they include the United States, Israel, and China. There are hints that certain Russian UAV and UGV systems may be offered to potential customers in the Middle East and elsewhere. For example, there is a supposed interest from Brazil to domestically manufacture Russia’s Orlan-10 UAV – the workhorse of the Russian UAV fleet. Russia will be keen to capitalize on the growing security trend in unmanned systems acquisitions, as more and more militaries around the world are realizing the benefits of fielding unmanned systems in place of more expensive manned technologies.

These trends are in line with major developments in unmanned military technology across the world, as key players and customers are testing and evaluating new concepts and weapons. The Russian Federation has entered the 2020s with a modernized and experienced military that has been battle-tested in recent conflicts. The next decade will see Russia seeking to absorb the lessons learned from these conflicts, acquire new technology to fight the next war, and to potentially market their solutions to willing customers and allies.

If you enjoyed this post, please also see:

- Russian Ground Battlefield Robots: A Candid Evaluation and Ways Forward and Autonomous Robotic Systems in the Russian Ground Forces, by Sam Bendett
- “The Tenth Man” — Russia’s Era Military Innovation Technopark, by Ray Finch

Have an opinion on battlefield autonomous systems, man-unmanned teaming, and lethal autonomy? Please take a few minutes to complete our short, on-line Global Perspectives Conference Survey; plan on livestreaming our Global Perspectives in the Operational Environment virtual conference next Wednesday, 29 January 2020, at www.tradoc.army.mil/watch starting at 0830 EST (note that this link is not live until 27 Jan 20); and stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory to learn what insights we glean from this survey and conference regarding potential OE trends, challenges, technologies, and disruptors.

Samuel Bendett is a Researcher at CNA and a Fellow in Russia Studies at the American Foreign Policy Council. He is also a proud Mad Scientist.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or the Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

January 16, 2020January 15, 2020

203. “The Convergence” – An Army Mad Scientist Podcast

[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to announce the premier episode of “The Convergence” podcast. Please note that this podcast and several of the embedded links below are best accessed via a non-DoD network — Enjoy!]

The Army Mad Scientist Initiative is launching our very own podcast — “The Convergence.” After several years of successfully partnering on podcasts with West Point’s Modern War Institute, we were inspired to found our own with a distinct focus on divergent viewpoints, a challenging of assumptions, and insights from thought leaders and subject matter experts.

This podcast is another component of our wider effort to reach out to diverse groups and really open the aperture of our analysis and understanding of the operational environment. The purpose of “The Convergence” is to explore technological, economic, and societal trends that disrupt the operational environment and to get a diversity of opinions on the character of warfare. Like the Mad Scientist Laboratory and our conferences, the podcast will feature disruptive thinkers and world-class experts to expand the thinking and analysis of our Community of Action.

Dr. Sean McFate / Source: HarperCollins Publishers, photo by Will O’Leary

Our first episode features Dr. Sean McFate, foreign policy expert, author, and novelist. He is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington DC think tank, and a professor of strategy at the National Defense University and Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Additionally, he serves as an Advisor to Oxford University’s Centre for Technology and Global Affairs.

Dr. McFate’s newest book is The New Rules of War: Victory in the Age of Durable Disorder, which was picked by The Economist as one of their best books of 2019. It has been called “The Freakonomics of modern warfare.” In our podcast, Dr. McFate provides his opinions on the changing character of warfare, the rise of private military contractors, information warfare, and the effects these trends will have on the operational environment.

Dr. McFate’s career began as a paratrooper and officer in the U.S. Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, where he graduated from elite training programs such as the Jungle Warfare School in Panama and was also a Jump Master. He then became a private military contractor where, among his many experiences, he dealt with warlords in the jungle, raised armies for U.S. interests, rode with armed groups in the Sahara, conducted strategic reconnaissance for the extractive industry, transacted arms deals in Eastern Europe, and helped prevent an impending genocide in east Africa.

Dr. McFate holds a BA from Brown University, MPP from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, and a Ph.D. in international relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). He lives in Washington, DC. For more information, see www.seanmcfate.com.

Click here to listen to Dr. McFate in our premier podcast episode of “The Convergence,”…

… stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory as we will be releasing a new podcast every other week with exciting and impactful guests,…

… listen to the following MWI podcasts with these Mad Scientists:

- How the Army is Preparing for the Future Battlefield, with MG John George and Mr. Jay Harrison
- Former Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work Assesses the Future Battlefield
- What Does the Future Hold for the US Military in Space? with Dr. Moriba Jah

… and don’t forget to take a few minutes to complete our short, on-line Global Perspectives Conference Survey. Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory to learn what insights we glean from this survey regarding potential OE trends, challenges, technologies, and disruptors.

January 13, 2020January 10, 2020

202. Psychological Warfare in the Human Domain: Mixing AI-Powered Technology with Psychosocial Engagement

[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to publish today’s post by returning guest bloggers LTC Arnel P. David, LTC (Ret) Patrick James Christian, PhD, and Dr. Aleksandra Nesic, demonstrating once again the power of a well-crafted narrative in conveying the game changing potential artificial intelligence coupled with Social Science Interfaced Technology have in augmenting special operators as they engage with key leaders at the “bleeding edge” of a near future operational environment!]

A multifunctional special operations team infiltrates into the Ad Dali’ Province of western Yemen as part of a coalition effort that supports the UN recognized government of President Mansour Hadi, based in the southern capital of Aden.

The team is one of several that have begun to infiltrate the tribal areas within the span of control of the Houthi rebel army that is based in Sana’a. The purpose of these specialized teams is simple: foment rebellion within the Yemeni tribes against their Houthi oppressors and return control of their tribal areas to the legitimate government as directed by the UN.

The team leader for the team that has infiltrated into Ad Dali’ is Captain Adam MacDonald of the British Army, who is leading part of his team into the ruined home of Sheikh Abdul Jaleel al-Hudaifi, in the war torn village of Najd al-Mukalla, in the al-Harsha district, just outside of the Ad Dali’ provincial capital. The previous Saturday, on February 12, 2025, militia fighters operating under the al-Houthi movement blew up the primary home of the tribal leader of the al-Harsha district using dynamite. The Houthi militia had forced their way into the home, ravaging it and chasing the occupants out. They then rigged the explosives and torched the Sheikh’s car to “teach him a lesson in humility and submission to the Houthi regime.” Apparently, he had been suspected by Malik al-Houthi of cooperating with the Saudi-led alliance that backs the UN recognized government in Aden.

Captain MacDonald and his team have thoroughly studied their Yemeni target audience using the Human Domain Matrix (HDM)^TM. The HDM^TM is a newly emerging capability that allows operators to psychologically and emotionally analyze a conflict community to predict emotionally driven behavior and cognitive thought patterns. The HDM^TM employs vast amounts of anthropologically curated, psychosocial-emotional data that is integrated into the team’s personal digital assistant (PDA) devices.

On the outskirts of the village, Captain MacDonald had linked up with the Sheikh’s oldest grandson, Nasser al-Hudaifi, a weary 28-year-old with the physical appearance of a seasoned fighter. His presence and connection to the Tribal leader of al-Dali’s largest ethnic tribe ensured his and the team’s safety. Cautiously, they moved through the town’s wreckage, careful to avoid any lingering Houthi spies until they reached the Sheikh’s ruined home.

As they approached, MacDonald noticed layers of tribal militia fighters who had taken up positions along the approaches to their destination. Their recognition of the Sheikh’s grandson caused immediate, but subtle, relaxation of their defensive posture. Their guide’s father, Mufarih al-Hudaifi, was the Sheikh’s eldest surviving son, and greeted them at the door. Mufarih led them to the darkened interior to meet his father — the tribal leader that they had traveled thousands of miles to engage. At each up-close engagement, multiple sensors worn by MacDonald and his men confirmed the identities of key players such as Nasser, Mufarih, and eventually, Sheikh Abdul Jaleel, all of whom had referential data in the Global Human Engagement Network (GHEN) cloud database. Their personally worn sensors leveraged facial recognition AI tools that were hosted on the HUMINT data servers back in their Advanced Operating Base, outside of Yemen. This enabled the team to ensure they were engaging with the right players and navigate a kaleidoscope of complex psycho-social and cultural landscapes with a broader view of the human geography.

The elderly Sheikh needed little reciprocal knowledge of MacDonald and his team’s identity. The Sheikh’s men had been shadowing MacDonald’s team since they first penetrated Ad Dali’s provincial boundaries the previous day. His time spent working with the British Army during their mandate over Southern Yemen gave him a sophisticated understanding of the western world, especially British accents and modes of appearance and non-verbal communication. MacDonald’s team sensory devices, in turn, provided them that same knowledge, but drawn instead from the HDM^TM.

After greeting the elderly Sheikh, MacDonald gave him a token of esteem — a titanium-plated, gold-inlayed Jambiyah with the Sheikh’s family name and crest engraved on the razor-sharp blade and on its woven leather case. With watery eyes, the Sheikh acknowledged the gift and promised in turn, that he and his sons and grandsons would wet the blade with the blood of their enemies who had dishonored the tribe and their historical memory with Houthi savagery.

As MacDonald and his men seated themselves around the elderly Sheikh, his son Mufarih, and grandson Nasser, the team’s augmented reality VIS-GLASSES were transmitting every image and sound back to the HDM^TM servers in control. At the same time, their glasses were constantly displaying names and facts about their hosts from their training with HDM^TM. They had selected and constructed the Jambiyah gift based on HDM^TM analysis of the three most emotionally important, culturally symbolic objects of masculine identity for Yemen tribal society: the possession of a family Jambiyah, control/ownership over family and tribal lands, and control/safeguarding of the female members of Yemeni society.

The team’s training and employment of HDM^TM provided them with a visceral understanding of the power of Yemen tribal honor and the destructive consequences of public dishonor and shaming, especially at the hands of competing Yemeni tribes such as al-Houthi. Each of the team’s talking points and communication strategies had been developed to accentuate their psychological and emotional needs and deficits in accordance with the recommendations gleaned from the HDM^TM. The result of the team’s preparation and employment of psychological warfare tools were evident in the verbal and non-verbal communication. As the elderly Sheikh recounted the savage attack on his home by al-Houthi militia, the team could see his grandson absently drawing his index finger down along his cheek-beard line. Immediately, MacDonald’s neural transponder alerted him with the term “Fi Wajhi”, a Yemen-Arabic dialect word for “by my face.” The teams’ devices had picked up a subconscious non-verbal communication signal from Nasser of increasing emotional affect. For Yemeni tribal males, this non-verbal communication signals that his honor is being trampled, questioned, or refuted, a psychological condition that ignites significant emotional affect commonly leading to violent outplays.

MacDonald’s link to the HDM^TM quickly began to push engagement recommendations to engage the young man’s growing emotional anger in a way that focused his rage on their common enemy, the al-Houthi militias that had so recently dishonored them. MacDonald pivoted his body towards the grandson and exclaimed to the elderly Sheikh that Nasser had demonstrated great bravery and fortitude during their linkup, while helping the team avoid deadly al-Houthi snipers. Nasser’s eyes widened at the unexpected recognition and compliment from the foreigners sent to engage his grandfather. The elderly Sheikh turned to his grandson and blessed him, telling him that one day, he would lead the great avengement of his tribal honor, but for now, he must learn all that he can from their British cousins on how to fight guerrilla style.

While MacDonald’s cognitive mind was remembering issues to cover and agreements to propose, his HDM^TM linked sensors were taking in the non-verbal subconscious and emotional communication of each member present in the engagement. The advanced technology reduced the cognitive burden on operators and significantly enhanced their understanding of the human domain, resulting in improved engagement. Social Science Interfaced Technology allowed for operators to predict and pre-emptively engage the key behavioural indicators of their hosts.

If you enjoyed this post, stay tuned for Part 3 on Emotional Warfare in the Balkans and check out the following:

– “I Know the Sound it Makes When It Lies” AI-Powered Tech to Improve Engagement in the Human Domain, by LTC Arnel P. David, LTC (Ret) Patrick James Christian, PhD, and Dr. Aleksandra Nesic

– Operationalizing the Science of the Human Domain, by Aleks Nesic and Arnel P. David

– A Psycho-Emotional Human Security Analytical Framework, by Patrick J. Christian, Aleksandra Nesic, David Sniffen, Tasneem Aljehani, Khaled Al Sumairi, Narayan B. Khadka, Basimah Hallawy, and Binamin Konlan

– The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Mr. Brady Moore and Mr. Chris Sauceda

ATTENTION MAD SCIENTISTS!

The U.S. Army Mission Command Battle Lab Futures Branch needs your help!

They are conducting a Command Post of the Future – 2040-2050 Writing Contest. Click here to learn more about suggested contest writing prompts, rules, prizes, and how to submit your entry — deadline is 1 March 2020…

… and don’t forget to also enter The Operational Environment in 2035 Mad Scientist Writing Contest — click here to learn more (note that our deadline is also 1 March 2020!)

Authors:

LTC (Ret) Patrick James Christian, PhD is co-founder of Valka-Mir and a Psychoanalytical Anthropologist focused on the psychopathology of violent ethnic and cultural conflict. He a retired Special Forces officer serving as a social scientist for the Psychological Operations Task Forces in the Arabian Peninsula and Afghanistan, where he constructs psychological profiles of designated target audiences.

LTC Arnel P. David is an Army Strategist serving in the United Kingdom as the U.S. Special Assistant for the Chief of the General Staff. He recently completed an Artificial Intelligence Program from the Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford.

Aleksandra Nesic, PhD is co-founder of Valka-Mir and Visiting Faculty for the Countering Violent Extremism and Countering Terrorism Fellowship Program at the Joint Special Operations University (JSOU), USSOCOM. She is also a Visiting Faculty, US Army JFK Special Warfare Center and School, and a Senior Researcher of Complex Communal Conflicts at Valka-Mir Human Security, LLC.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), the British Army or any government agency.