88. Biostorm: A Story of Future War

[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to publish the following excerpt from Anthony DeCapite‘s short story of the same title.  This story was written, based on ideas developed in the SciTech Futures Technology Foresight Game:  Bio Convergence and the Soldier of 2050.  This game was conducted by the University of Southern California’s Institute for Creative Technologies, and supported by the SciTech Futures Technology Effort under the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research & Technology). The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect official views or policies of the United States Army.]

THE YEAR IS 2042…

The US and its remaining NATO allies are engaged in a limited war with the Mektigfolk, an ultra-nationalist techno-state that emerged from northern Europe during the reactionary upheavals that swept the continent in 2026.

The US has deployed a Joint Task Force to protect crucial rare-earth mining operations on a vast ice sheet in the Barents Sea.

Captain Steven Park and his infantry company, of the 10th Mountain Division, must protect an engineering detachment that will build a Combat Outpost around the Strand, a deep-sea mining facility.

Art Credit:  Daniel Brewer

It was good to be outside the wire. As Alpha Company commander, Captain Steven Park had been stuck within the confines of FOB Nordau for weeks while his Platoon Leaders got to go tramping around the ice shelf, conducting recon and planting sensors.

Not today. Nordau was 150 klicks behind them. Park had his company in a wedge formation, protecting the elements of 7th Engineer Battalion that followed them in a column. Their mission: to provide security for 7th Engineers while they built a Combat Outpost at their destination, a mining facility known as the Strand.

The Strand perched on the edge of the shelf, overlooking the Barents Sea. Right in the Mektig’s backyard. Beneath the facility was a treasure trove of a Rare Earth Element crucial in military guidance-and-control systems. With China throttling the global REE market, securing viable sources had become a NATO priority. [i]

Park couldn’t care less about REEs. He had trained host nation security forces and got in firefights with irregular fighters, but he had never faced a near-peer threat before. America had not done so in almost a century. Park was eager to prove his company was up to the task.

The long distance and extreme cold of the mission meant that every one of his Soldiers was packed in a Stryker, JLTV, or mounted on a snowmobile. The boys and girls of the 7th filled bulldozers, heavy equipment transports, and cargo trucks. From the view of their ISR quadcopter drone – the ‘Buzzard’ – the mass of vehicles looked like a deformed caterpillar inching across a white desert.

Park had shunned his JLTV seat and chosen a snowmobile, wanting to brave the same cold that his rifle squads faced here at the head of the caterpillar. There had been no sign of enemies for the entire movement, though their Buzzard, with its array of sensors, had detected a group of sea lions two klicks from the right flank. The latest intel said the nearest Mektig unit was 200 klicks southeast, moving to fortify Franz Josef.

“Six, this is One-Six.” Lieutenant Rowe, leader of First Platoon, was on the hook for him. “Buzzard’s detecting multiple objects descending toward us. Got the Javelins on it.”

“Copy.” Park switched to the formation-wide channel: “Company, prepare for air-to-surface attack.”

The formation dispersed and exposed Soldiers piled into skinned vehicles. Park jumped off his snowmobile and SPC Logan helped him into a Stryker.

Art Credit:  Scott Carter

Park turned on the Augmented Reality display built into his HUD goggles, and a Picture-In-Picture materialized in the top right corner of his vision. It showed a computerized dome view of the airspace over their formation, with metadata: 24 spherical objects dropping like stones. [ii]
Park switched to optical view and zoomed in – softball-sized aluminum bomblets.

“Incoming!” The shout was repeated over the hook and echoed across the icy landscape.

Pff-pff-pff! Instead of exploding, the bomblets impacted in the snow. Then, there was a hiss, and green-brown mist erupted from the bomblets, enveloping the entire formation.

Shouts of “Gas-gas-gas!” crackled over the hook and Park’s Soldiers took out and put on their gas masks. Park tightened the straps on his own, securing it. Still, his nostrils filled with a rotten egg smell. Park felt no effects, and the bio-feedback readout in his HUD showed his Soldiers breathing normally. It wasn’t a chemical attack, at least not the kind Park feared.

First, 7th Engineer’s dozer ground to a halt in the ice. Then, the Stryker he was in stopped.

“Keep moving. We need to clear this gas.” Park ordered.

“It’s not me, sir! The engine died.” The driver replied.

Park heard a squeal of brakes, then there was a horrendous crunch of metal as something slammed into them, knocking Park’s helmeted head into SPC Logan’s.

Park used his AR PIP to get the bird’s eye view. A heavy equipment transport had slammed into his Stryker, and all around, vehicles were slipping and sliding to a stop.

“That gas attack disabled all the vehicles!”

“Prepare for contact,” Park said.

Moments later, the pops of small-arms fire fulfilled his prophecy, echoing from the rear.

“Contact rear!” In his HUD’s PIP, Park saw a platoon-sized element of dismounted Mektig fighters firing on the rear of his formation. Park ran out of the immobilized Stryker.

“Defensive formation! 3rd and 4th squad, on me!” Park said, and led them against the ambushers, using vehicles as cover. At this point, that was all they were good for.

Shoof! An enemy RPG hit a JLTV, sending hot metal skittering across the ice.

He heard the hollow pings of rounds hitting a Stryker, and the shouts of “Contact!” that followed, but the sounds came from the front of the formation. The Mektigs had them in a pincer attack.

Bastards came here to wipe us out, Park thought, but kept that bitter realization from the hook.

“Focus fire missions on lead element attackers. We’re closer to the objective than to Nordau. We gotta break through,” he ordered.

Park tried to hail FOB Nordau for a QRF and MEDEVAC, but could not get through. He tried to call for air support next, and again could not get through. The enemy was jamming them – all they had was the company frequency, and that was crackling with casualty reports from his PLs.

An RPG exploded a few yards from Park, lifting a snowmobile off the ground and ripping Sergeant Jones apart.

 

 

Jones. It hit Park like a punch in the gut, a sickening jolt that threatened to overwhelm him.

Smoke, steam, and the green-brown mist obscured the area.

Park tapped his HUD for the Buzzard’s view, activating multispectral imaging in the AR view, allowing him to see everything on the battlefield, through haze and ice and flesh.

SGT Meadows, in the Stryker Fire Support Vehicle, beat Park to the punch, designating a target that appeared instantly in every Soldier’s AR HUD, and another team in a Stryker mortar carrier launched three rounds in swift succession, pounding the attackers at the front end. SGT Meadows designated another target, and mortar rounds, grenades, and .50 caliber bullets ripped into that arm of the pincer. Then, in concert with his AR-enabled Soldiers, Park pushed back the other arm of the pincer, the attackers at the rear. There was no time to waste, and he got on the hook with his leaders:

“Account for your team, give me SITREPS, and get ready to double time to the objective.”

If you enjoyed this excerpt, Mr. DeCapite‘s full length article may be read at SciTech Futures, or at Small Wars Journal.

Also see Mr. Frank Prautzsch‘s guest blog post, Our Arctic—The World’s Pink Flamingo and Black Swan Bird Sanctuary, addressing the coming competition for Arctic resources.

The SciTech Futures Technology Foresight Game: Bio Convergence and the Soldier of 2050 was facilitated in conjunction with the Mad Scientist Bio Convergence and Soldier 2050 Conference, co-sponsored by SRI International at their campus at Menlo Park CA, on 8-9 March 2018.  Read this Conference’s final report here, including Annex 3 documenting the comprehensive results of the SciTech Futures Technology Foresight Game.

Click here to learn more about USC ICT’s SciTech Futures Technology Effort and engage with their next Technology Foresight exercise.

Anthony DeCapite is a writer and creative content manager at USC ICT. He served in the Marine Corps as a Combat Videographer and Video Chief, and was honorably discharged as a Sergeant (E-5). A graduate of USC’s Writing for Screen and Television Program, he uses his Marine Corps experiences and creative chops to write and produce compelling experiences.


ANNOTATED ENDNOTES

[i] Beneath the facility was a treasure trove of a Rare Earth Element… With China throttling the global REE market, securing viable sources had become a NATO priority.

Rare Earth Minerals: Developing a Comprehensive Approach Could Help DOD Better Manage National Security Risks in the Supply Chain,” GAO-16-161, Government Accountability Office Report, February 2016.

China can’t control the market in rare earth elements because they aren’t all that rare,” James Vincent, The Verge, April 27, 2018, accessed July 12, 2018.

As of this writing, China produces approximately 90 percent of the world’s supply of rare earth minerals. Rare earth elements are “easy to find” but “difficult to produce” (Vincent). This story posits a future in which the viable veins of certain REEs are scarce, a reasonable projection given the ever-growing global demand for new electronic devices.

[ii] Park turned on the Augmented Reality display built into his HUD goggles, and a Picture-In-Picture materialized in the top right corner of his vision.

SciTech Futures Technology Foresight Game: Bio convergence and the Soldier of 2050,” Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army (Research and Technology), June 11-16, 2018, accessed July 12, 2018.

In the SciTech Futures Technology Foresight Game, players were asked to invest virtual money “on behalf of” the U.S. Army, potential future adversaries, and society at large. Augmented Reality / Virtual Reality was a Top 10 idea by investment for the US Army. The player who submitted the idea, ghorstkj, noted that AR/VR needs to be a in the hands of Soldiers for maximum utility, instead of simply being fielded in a Tactical Operations Center or remaining highly developed in the commercial space.

Sydney J Freedberg Jr. “HUD 3.0: Army to test Augmented Reality for Infantry in 18 Months,” Breaking Defense, March 29, 2018, accessed July 12, 2018.

The US Army is developing AR-enabled HUDs for Infantry Soldiers as of this writing.

59. Fundamental Questions Affecting Army Modernization

[Editor’s Note:  The Operational Environment (OE) is the start point for Army Readiness – now and in the Future. The OE answers the question, “What is the Army ready for?”  Without the OE in training and Leader development, Soldiers and Leaders are “practicing” in a benign condition, without the requisite rigor to forge those things essential for winning in a complex, multi-domain battlefield.  Building the Army’s future capabilities, a critical component of future readiness, requires this same start point.  The assumptions the Army makes about the Future OE are the sine qua non start point for developing battlefield systems — these assumptions must be at the forefront of decision-making for all future investments.]

There are no facts about the future. Leaders interested in building future ready organizations must develop assumptions about possible futures and these assumptions require constant scrutiny. Leaders must also make decisions based on these assumptions to posture organizations to take advantage of opportunities and to mitigate risks. Making these decisions is fundamental to building future readiness.

Source: Evan Jensen, ARL

The TRADOC G-2 has made the following foundational assumptions about the future that can serve as launch points for important questions about capability requirements and capabilities under development. These assumptions are further described in An Advanced Engagement Battlespace: Tactical, Operational and Strategic Implications for the Future Operational Environment, published by our colleagues at Small Wars Journal.

1. Contested in all domains (air, land, sea, space, and cyber). Increased lethality, by virtue of ubiquitous sensors, proliferated precision, high kinetic energy weapons and advanced area munitions, further enabled by autonomy, robotics, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) with an increasing potential for overmatch. Adversaries will restrict us to temporary windows of advantage with periods of physical and electronic isolation.

Source: Army Technology

2. Concealment is difficult on the future battlefield. Hiding from advanced sensors — where practicable — will require dramatic reduction of heat, electromagnetic, and optical signatures. Traditional hider techniques such as camouflage, deception, and concealment will have to extend to “cross-domain obscuration” in the cyber domain and the electromagnetic spectrum. Canny competitors will monitor their own emissions in real-time to understand and mitigate their vulnerabilities in the “battle of signatures.” Alternately, “hiding in the open” within complex terrain clutter and near-constant relocation might be feasible, provided such relocation could outpace future recon / strike targeting cycles.   Adversaries will operate among populations in complex terrain, including dense urban areas.

3. Trans-regional, gray zone, and hybrid strategies with both regular and irregular forces, criminal elements, and terrorists attacking our weaknesses and mitigating our advantages. The ensuing spectrum of competition will range from peaceful, legal activities through violent, mass upheavals and civil wars to traditional state-on-state, unlimited warfare.

Source: Science Photo Library / Van Parys Media

4. Adversaries include states, non-state actors, and super-empowered individuals, with non-state actors and super empowered individuals now having access to Weapons of Mass Effect (WME), cyber, space, and Nuclear/Biological/ Chemical (NBC) capabilities. Their operational reach will range from tactical to global, and the application of their impact from one domain into another will be routine. These advanced engagements will also be interactive across the multiple dimensions of conflict, not only across every domain in the physical dimension, but also the cognitive dimension of information operations, and even the moral dimension of belief and values.

Source: Northrop Grumman

5. Increased speed of human interaction, events and action with democratized and rapidly proliferating capabilities means constant co-evolution between competitors. Recon / Strike effectiveness is a function of its sensors, shooters, their connections, and the targeting process driving decisions. Therefore, in a contest between peer competitors with comparable capabilities, advantage will fall to the one that is better integrated and makes better and faster decisions.

These assumptions become useful when they translate to potential decision criteria for Leaders to rely on when evaluating systems being developed for the future battlefield. Each of the following questions are fundamental to ensuring the Army is prepared to operate in the future.

Source: Lockheed Martin

1. How will this system operate when disconnected from a network? Units will be disconnected from their networks on future battlefields. Capabilities that require constant timing and precision geo-locational data will be prioritized for disruption by adversaries with capable EW systems.

2. What signature does this system present to an adversary? It is difficult to hide on the future battlefield and temporary windows of advantage will require formations to reduce their battlefield signatures. Capabilities that require constant multi-directional broadcast and units with large mission command centers will quickly be targeted and neutralized.

Image credit: Alexander Kott

3. How does this system operate in dense urban areas? The physical terrain in dense urban areas and megacities creates concrete canyons isolating units electronically and physically. Automated capabilities operating in dense population areas might also increase the rate of false signatures, confusing, rather than improving, Commander decision-making. New capabilities must be able to operate disconnected in this terrain. Weapons systems must be able to slew and elevate rapidly to engage vertical targets. Automated systems and sensors will require significant training sets to reduce the rate of false signatures.

Source: Military Embedded Systems

4. How does this system take advantage of open and modular architectures? The rapid rate of technological innovations will offer great opportunities to militaries capable of rapidly integrating prototypes into formations.  Capabilities developed with open and modular architectures can be upgraded with autonomous and AI enablers as they mature. Early investment in closed-system capabilities will freeze Armies in a period of rapid co-evolution and lead to overmatch.

5. How does this capability help win in competition short of conflict with a near peer competitor? Near peer competitors will seek to achieve limited objectives short of direct conflict with the U.S. Army. Capabilities will need to be effective at operating in the gray zone as well as serving as deterrence. They will need to be capable of strategic employment from CONUS-based installations.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following items of interest:

    • Join SciTech Futures‘ community of experts, analysts, and creatives on 11-18 June 2018 as they discuss the logistical challenges of urban campaigns, both today and on into 2035. What disruptive technologies and doctrines will blue (and red) forces have available in 2035? Are unconventional forces the future of urban combat? Their next ideation exercise goes live 11 June 2018 — click here to learn more!