[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to publish today’s post by Collin Meisel and returning guest blogger Dr. Jonathan D. Moyer, both of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Eschewing another discussion of disruptive emergent technologies, Mr. Meisel and Dr. Moyer instead focus on persistent global trends that, while perhaps not as sexy as artificial intelligence or quantum computing, are just as relevant to warfighters preparing for competition and conflict with potential adversaries in the Future Operational Environment!]
Too often, discussion of the Future Operational Environment (FOE) is filled with science fiction-inspired speculation of a world driven by the likes ofquantum artificial intelligence (AI) and “self-constructing robotic ‘cyburgs’”. While these andsimilar potential technological developments are entertaining—and even useful to ponder—we should not let them distract us from less sensational but also consequential trends that are sure to transform the FOE in the coming decades, such as persistent demographic and economic shifts among great powers and the developing world. In other words, let’s take the “hype” out ofhyperwar (i.e., a possible future where AI calls the shots on the battlefield).
Rather than speculating about what could become of these much-hyped technological developments, a more productive use of time is to consider, for example, the serious threat that more limited versions of quantum computing and AI might still pose in, say, the hands of adeclining China. Even as it rises, China is up against long-term, persistent trends—such as a forthcoming shrinking population and the predicament ofaging before it gets rich—that are sure to impact geopolitics in East Asia and beyond as the Chinese Communist Party, which in partjustifiesits one-party rule by continued prosperity,clings to power. Indeed, this is a foreseeable, understandable future—the opposite of hype and speculation.
As another increasingly important geopolitical player, India faces its own set of structural shifts in a direction much different from that of China. With relatively high birth rates and lower death rates compared to China, India’s population will likely continue to rise—and, in part, drive economic growth—as its counterpart to the northeast begins to wither. While these forecasts are of one possible future, their consistency with trends over the last half-century suggests that policymakers in the United States and elsewhere should be preparing for such a world. And what of other persistent demographic trends? Although we cannot know for certain what Africa’s growth to nearly one-third of the world’s population by 2060 will mean in light of Europe’s simultaneous contraction, we can say with a fair degree of certainty that such a demographic shift is likely to happen given persistent global trends. Again, these are understandable futures; they are what is and has been happening, not hype.
Using the freely-available, open-source International Futures tool, we and our colleagues at the Pardee Center for International Futures are working with the Army Future Studies Group (AFSG) to think about long-term futures by examining these and other persistent trends in areas ranging from material power to natural systems. For example, AFSG fellows are asked to think about the planet’s water systems, impending water shortages across regions like Central and Western Asia and Northern Africa, and what they might mean for regional development and potentialconflicts. While study of these less buzz-worthy trends may not tell the Army how it will be fightingwars of the future, it can at least help forecast trends that point to where and with whom.
Demographic transitions and shrinking aquifers may not have the same pizzazz aswarfare at the speed of thought and other elements of theAI battlefield, but they possess equal potential to transform the FOE in fundamental ways. More importantly, these less sensational but persistent structural shifts can be considered in combination to develop plausible, understandable future scenarios—not science fiction fantasy. To be clear, hyperwar and its accompanying technologies still deserve attention, so long as those considering them do not get caught up in the hype. The goal of futures studies should be to strive towards a more understandable future—then we can worry about Elon Musk and the impending AI apocalypse.
If you enjoyed reading this post, please also see:
[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to present our latest edition of “The Queue” – a monthly post listing the most compelling articles, books, podcasts, videos, and/or movies that the U.S. Army’s Mad Scientist Initiative has come across during the previous month. In this anthology, we address how each of these works either informs or challenges our understanding of the Future Operational Environment (OE). We hope that you will add “The Queue” to your essential reading, listening, or watching each month!]
There are no facts about the future and the future is not a linear extrapolation from the present. We inherently understand this about the future, but Leaders oftentimes seek to quantify the unquantifiable. Eliot Peper opens his Harvard Business Review article with a story about one of the biggest urban problems in New York City at the end of the 19th century – it stank!
Horses were producing 45,000 tons of manure a month. The urban planners of1898convened a conference to address this issue, but the experts failed to find a solution. More importantly, they could not envision a futureonly a decade and a half hence, when cars would outnumber horses. The urban problem of the future was not horse manure, but motor vehicle-generated pollution and road infrastructure. All quantifiable data available to the 1898 urban planners only extrapolated to more humans, horses, and manure. It is likely that any expert sharing an assumption about cars over horses would have been laughed out of the conference hall. Flash forward a century and the number one observation from the9/11 Commission was that the Leaders and experts responsible for preventing such an attack lacked imagination. Story telling and the science fiction genre allow Leaders to imagine beyond the numbers and broaden the assumptions needed to envision possible futures.
On 19 Feb 19, President TrumpsignedSpace Policy Directive-4 (SPD-4), establishing the Space Force as the nation’s newest military branch. This force will initially reside within the U.S. Air Force, much as the U.S. Marine Corps resides within the U.S. Navy. Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan, as Deputy Secretary of Defense, must now provide the associated draft legislative proposal to the President via the Office of Management and Budget; then it will be submitted to Congress for approval – its specific “details… and how effectively Administration officials defend it on Capitol Hill will determine its fate.”
Given what is sure to be a contentious and polarizing congressional debate, the Defense Intelligence Agency’s Challenges to Security in Space provides a useful unclassified reference outlining our near-peer adversaries’ (China and Russia) space strategy, doctrine, and intent; key space and counterspace organizations; and space and counterspace capabilities. These latter capabilities are further broken out into: space launch capabilities; human spaceflight and space exploration; Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR); navigation and communications; and counterspace.
In addition to our near-peer’s space capabilities, Iranian and North Korean space challenges are also addressed. The paper explores these nations’ respective national space launch facilities as venues for testing ballistic missile technologies.
The paper concludes with an outlook assessment addressing theincreasing number of spacefaring nations, with “some actors integrat[ing] space and counterspace capabilities into military operations,” and “trends… pos[ing] a challenge to U.S. space dominance and present[ing] new risks for assets on orbit.”
A number of useful appendices are also included, addressing the implications of debris and orbital collisions; counterspace threats illustrating the associated capabilities on a continuum from reversible (e.g., Electronic Warfare and Denial and Deception) to irreversible (e.g., Ground Site Attacks and Nuclear Detonation in Space); and a useful list defining space acronyms.
With the U.S. and our allies’ continued dependence on space domain operations in maintaining a robust deterrence, and failing that, winning on future battlefields, this DIA assessment is an important reference for warfighters and policy makers, alike.
One of the major barriers to quantum computing is a rather unexpected one: in order for superconduction to occur, it must be very cold. Superconduction is an electrical current that moves “entirely without resistance” and, as of now, with standard materials superconduction is only possible at -200oC. In quantum computing there are massive amounts of particles moving in interdependent trajectories, and precisely calculating all of them is impossible. Researchers at TU Wien (Technische Universität Wien – Vienna University of Technology) were able to add on to an existing equation that allows for the approximate calculation of these particles in solid matter, not just a vacuum. This new formula may make it easier to develop different superconducting materials and potentially identify materials that could conduct at room temperature.
Quantum computing is heralded as the next big step in the technological revolution and the key to unlocking unthinkable possibilities of human and technological advancement. If there was a way for quantum computing to work at closer to room temperature, then that could lead to a major breakthrough in the technology and the rapid application of quantum computing to the operational environment. There is also a massive first mover advantage in quantum computing technology: the organization that solves the problem first will have unlimited and uncontested use of the technology, and very few people in the world have the technological expertise to quickly replicate the discovery.
In this prescient episode of the Modern War Institute podcast, John Amble interviews Dr. Anthony King (Chair of War Studies in the Politics and International Studies Department at Warwick University in the United Kingdom) about his new book Command: The Twenty-First Century General. Amble and Dr. King have a detailed and informative discussion about the future of command as the world has moved into a digital age and what it’s meant for the battlefield, warfighters, commanders, and even organizational staffs.
One of the more impactful ideas explored in this podcast, in relation to the future of warfare, was the idea of collective decision-making on the part of commanders, as opposed to previous “hero era” individualistic leadership typified by General Patton and Field Marshals Rommel and Montgomery. Command teams (divisional staff, for example) have swelled in size not simply to create meaningless career milestones but due to digital age revolutions that allowed for increasingly complex operations.
With artificial intelligence becoming increasingly pervasive throughout the future operational environment and likely ever-present on future command staffs, Dr. King points out that staffs may not become smaller but actually may increase as operations become even more complex. The changing character of future warfare (especially the emergence of AI) may enable incredible new capabilities in coordination, synchronization, and convergence of effects but adversaries using more simplistic command structures could expose this inherent complexity through speed and decisiveness.
Scientists at the University of Bergen in Norway discussed the idea of a “moral A.I.” for smart home assistants, like the Amazon Echo, Google Home, and Apple HomePod at theAAAI / ACM Conference for Artificial Intelligence, Ethics and Society in Hawaii. Marija Slavkovik, associate professor at the department of information science and media studies “suggested that digital assistants should possess an ethical awareness that at once represents both the owner and the authorities — or, in the case of a minor, their parents.” Recall that previously, police have seized information gathered by smart devices.
Moral A.I. would require home assistants to “decide whether to report their owners for breaking the law,” or to remain silent. “This would let them weigh whether to report illegal activity to the police, effectively putting millions of people under constant surveillance.” Stakeholders “need to be identified and have a say, including when machines shouldn’t be able to listen in. Right now only the manufacturer decides.” At present, neither stakeholders nor consumers are in charge of their own information and companies use our personal information freely, without commensurate compensation.
If developed, brought to market, and installed (presumably willingly) in our homes (or public spaces), is Moral A.I. a human problem?
Yes. Broadly speaking, no place on earth is completely homogeneous; each country has a different culture, language, beliefs, norms, and society. Debating the nuances, the dystopian sounding and murky path of Moral A.I. involves the larger question on how should ethics be incorporated in AI.
Furthermore – should lethal autonomous weapons be used on humans? In his recent post entitled “AI Enhancing EI in War,” MAJ Vincent Dueñas addressed how AI can mitigate a human commander’s cognitive biases and enhance his/her (and their staff’s) decision-making to assist them in commanding, fighting, and winning on future battlefields. Humans are susceptible to cognitive biases and these biases sometimes result in catastrophic outcomes—particularly in the high stress environment of wartime decision-making. AI offers the possibility of mitigating the susceptibility of negative outcomes in the commander’s decision-making process by enhancing the collective Emotional Intelligence (EI) of the commander and his/her staff. For now, however, AI is too narrow to carry this out in someone’s home, let alone on the battlefield.
Signaling System 7 (SS7) is a series of cellular telephone protocols first built in 1975 that allows for telephonic communication around the globe. Within this set of protocols is a massive security vulnerability that has been public knowledge for over a decade. The vulnerability allows a nefarious actor to, among other things, track user location, dodge encryption, and record conversations. What’s more, this can be done while looking like ordinary carrier chatter and, in some cases, can be used to gain access to bank accounts through 2-factor authentication and effectively drain them.
This is significant from a military perspective because, as highlighted within a recentblog post, we have already seen near-peer adversarial states execute attacks through cellphone activity, personal wearable device location data, and social media. These states attempt to degrade soldier morale by launching information operations campaigns targeted at soldier families or the soldiers themselves through text messages, social media, or cell phone calls. The SS7 vulnerability could make these campaigns more successful or easier to execute and allow them to penetrate farther into the personal lives of soldiers than ever before.
Lastly, this vulnerability highlights an enduring trend: legacy communications infrastructure still exists and is still heavily used by civilian and military alike. This infrastructure is old and vulnerable and was designed before cellphones were commonplace. Modernizing this infrastructure around the world would be costly and time consuming and there has been little movement on fixing the vulnerability itself. Despite this vulnerability being known since 2008, is this something that will affect operations going forward? With no intrusion signature, will the Army need to modify existing policy on personal electronic devices for Soldiers and their families?
If you read, watch, or listen to something this month that you think has the potential to inform or challenge our understanding of the Future OE, please forward it (along with a brief description of why its potential ramifications are noteworthy to the greater Mad Scientist Community of Action) to our attention at: email@example.com — we may select it for inclusion in our next edition of “The Queue”!
[Editor’s Note: Regular readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory are familiar with a number of disruptive trends and their individual and convergent impacts on the Future Operational Environment (OE). In today’s post, we explore three recent publications to expand our understanding of these and additional emergent global trends. We also solicit your input on any other trends that have the potential to transform the OE and change the character of future warfare.]
“The U.S. Army finds itself at a historical inflection point, where disparate, yet related elements of the Operational Environment (OE) are converging, creating a situation where fast-moving trends across the Diplomatic, Information, Military, and Economic (DIME) spheres are rapidly transforming the nature of all aspects of society and human life – including the character of warfare.” — The Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Future Warfare
Last year, the Mad Scientist Initiative published several products that envisioned these fast-moving trends and how they are transforming the Future OE. These products included our:
• UpdatedPotential Game Changers information sheet, identifying a host of innovative technologies with the potential to disrupt future warfare during The Era of Accelerated Human Progress (now through 2035) and The Era of Contested Equality (2035 through 2050).
• Black Swans and Pink Flamingos blog post, addressing both Black Swan events (i.e., unknown, unknowns) which, though not likely, might have significant impacts on how we think about warfighting and security; and Pink Flamingos, which are the known, knowns that are often discussed, but ignored by Leaders trapped by organizational cultures and rigid bureaucratic decision-making structures.
With the advent of 2019, three new predictive publications have both confirmed and expanded the Mad Scientist Initiative’s understanding of emergent trends and technologies:
Megacorporations as adversaries. Our list of potential adversaries must expand to include “large companies that have the financial resources and a power base to exert influence on par with or exceeding non-state actors.” Thinksuper-empowered individual(s) enhanced further by the wealth, reach, influence, and cover afforded by a transnational corporation.
“The rich population is shrinking, the poor population is not. Working-age populations are shrinking in wealthy countries and in China and Russia, and are growing in developing, poorer countries…. [with] the potential to increase economic, employment, urbanization and welfare pressures, and spur migration.”
“Climate change, environment, and health issues will demand attention. More extreme weather, water and soil stress, and food insecurity will disrupt societies. Sea-level rise, ocean acidification, glacial melt, and pollution will change living patterns. Tensions over climate change will grow.”
“Internal and International Migration. Governments in megacities … may not have the capacity to provide adequate resources and infrastructure…. Mass migration events may occur and threaten regional stability, undermine governments, and strain U.S. military and civilian responses.”
“Infectious Diseases. New and evolving diseases from the natural environment—exacerbated by changes in climate, the movement of people into cities, and global trade and travel—may become a
pandemic. Drug-resistant forms of diseases previously considered treatable could become widespread again…. Diminishing permafrost could expand habitats for pathogens that cause disease.”
From Deloitte Insights Predictions we learned:
Intuitive AI development services may not require specialized knowledge. “Baidu recently released an AI training platform called EZDL that requires no coding experience and works even with small data training sets…. Cloud providers have developed pre-built machine learning APIs [application-programming interfaces] for technologies such as natural language processing that customers can access instead of building their own.”
Cryptocurrency growth may have driven Chinese semiconductor innovation. Chinese chipmakers’ Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), initially designed to meet domestic bitmining demands, may also meet China’s growing demand for AI chipsets vice Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). “Not only could these activities spark more domestic innovation… China just might be positioned to have a larger impact on the next generation of cognitive technologies.”
“Quantum-safe security was important yesterday. Malicious adversaries could store classically encrypted information today to decrypt in the future using a QC [Quantum Computer], in a gambit known as a ‘harvest-and-decrypt’ attack.”
From the WEF Report we learned:
“This is an increasingly anxious, unhappy, and lonely world. Anger is increasing and empathy appears to be in short supply…. Depression and anxiety disorders increased [globally] between 1990 and 2013…. It is not difficult to imagine such emotional and psychological disruptions having serious diplomatic—and perhaps even military—consequences.”
The risk from biological pathogens is increasing. “Outbreaks since 2000 have been described as a ‘rollcall of near-miss catastrophes’” and they are on the rise. “Biological weapons still have attractions for malicious non-state actors…. it [is] difficult to reliably attribute a biological attack… the direct effects—fatalities and injuries—would be compounded by potentially grave societal and political disruption.”
“Use of weather manipulation tools stokes geopolitical tensions. Could be used to disrupt … agriculture or military planning… if states decided unilaterally to use more radical geo-engineering technologies, it could trigger dramatic climatic disruptions.”
“Food supply disruption emerges as a tool as geo-economic tensions intensify. Worsening trade wars might spill over into high-stakes threats to disrupt food or agricultural supplies…. Could lead to disruptions of domestic and cross-border flows of food. At the extreme, state or non-state actors could target the crops of an adversary state… with a clandestine biological attack.”
Taps run dry on Water Day Zero. “Population growth, migration, industrialization, climate change, drought, groundwater depletion, weak infrastructure, and poor urban planning” all stress megacities’ ability to meet burgeoning demands, further exacerbating existing urban / rural divides, and could potentially lead to conflicts over remaining supply sources.
What Are We Missing?
The aforementioned trends are by no means comprehensive. Mad Scientist invites our readers to assist us in identifying any other additional emergent global trends that will potentially transform the OE and change the character of future warfare. Please share them with us and our readers by scrolling down to the bottom of this post to the “Leave a Reply” section, entering them in the Comment Box with an accompanying rationale, and then selecting the “Post Comment” button. Thank you in advance for all of your submissions!
[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to publish the following post by repeat guest blogger Mr. Victor R. Morris, addressing the relationship of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Robotic and Autonomous systems (RAS), and Quantum Information Science (QIS) to Quantum Artificial Intelligence (QAI), and why we should pursue a parallel QAI strategy in order to predict alternative possibilities in a quantum multiverse. Prepare to have your consciousness expanded — Read on! (Note: Some of the embedded links in this post are best accessed using non-DoD networks.)]
The U.S. defense industry routinely analyzes emerging and potentially disruptive technological trends influencing long-term strategic competition. This post describes the greater defense community as public and private sectors responsible for national security and associated interests abroad. Interstate competition has implications for global order and disorder, according to the2018 National Defense Strategysummary.
The three defense industry trends identified in this post are:
Artificial Intelligence (AI),
Robotic and Autonomous systems (RAS), and
Quantum Information Science (QIS).
According to Paul Scharre‘s preface to Elsa Kania‘s paper onBattlefield Singularity, published by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), “Artificial intelligence (AI) is fast heating up as a key area of strategic competition.” (N.B., both Mr. Scharre and Ms. Kania are proclaimed Mad Scientists whose works have previously graced this blog site). Furthermore, structured analysis identified interrelated aspects of these trends and the requirement for a multi-disciplinary strategy focused on Quantum Artificial Intelligence (QAI), anticipating the potential impact on global systems.
First, this post argues that AI, QIS, and RAS are components of a greater QAI ecosystem underpinned by the scientific notion of information discussed in detail later. Information does not measure what is known, ratherit measures the number of possible alternatives for something. CombiningAI and quantum computing applicationspotentially results in QAI, according to a variety of scientists and theorists in the field. Additionally, information is the nucleus or “quanta” of the entire QAI ecosystem. Understanding information is critical to understanding the natural world. Secondly, the post argues “keeping up with the Joneses” in AI is counterproductive and perpetuates misunderstanding of advancements and implications for the future.
The first section of this post briefly describes AI, Machine Learning (ML), RAS, QIS, and QAI, and their relationships with information. The second section describes theoretical interpretations of reality based on quantum mechanical properties.
Section 1 Overview AI, sometimes called machine intelligence, includes the machine learning field enabling autonomous or independent functions and activity. QIS and computing are the next evolution of classical computing with implications for machine learning, reasoning, and autonomous systems behavior. As mentioned above, information is a fundamental consideration for all of these fields and the ability to perform parallel probabilistic tasks. “Probabilistic” refers to probabilities indirectly associated with randomness.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)
AI involves computer systems performing tasks normally requiring human intelligence. In computer science, AI is the study of intelligent agents or autonomous entitiesperceiving and acting upon their environment. AI is intelligence exhibited by machines, enabled by machine learning algorithms in simpler terms. Algorithms are rule sets defining sequences of operations.ML is a field of AI and set of statistical techniques associated with machines performing intellectual, human tasks. ML includes deep learning and is critical to AI because it involves Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) like the human brain, enabling learning from large quantities of data to improve predictions and data driven decisions. ANNs are a framework for ML algorithms working together to process complex data sets.
Robotic and Autonomous Systems (RAS) Robots are one type of AI entity, while others include cyber agents, decision aids, and virtual assistants. Amazon’s Alexa and Apple’s Siri are good examples of AI-enabled virtual assistants using ML to perform tasks. RAS are technologies grantedautonomy or level of independence to execute tasks in a prescribed environment in a military context. RAS examples include both land and air systems like explosive ordnance disposal robots and unmanned aerial vehicles commonly referred to as “drones.” Autonomous behavior is designed by humans through a combination ofsensors and advanced computing processes. Advanced computing involves both environmental navigation and software enabled decision-making. RAS independence is a progressive spectrum, ranging from remote control to full autonomy.
Quantum Information Science (QIS)
According to the September 2018 United States Government’sNational Strategic Overview for Quantum Information Science report, “Quantum information science (QIS) applies the best understanding of the sub-atomic world—quantum theory—to generate new knowledge and technologies.” Quantum theory, also called quantum mechanics, describes the smallest finite quantities, or “quanta,” making up thequantum fields composing the universe. QIS includes the quantum computing field using quantum mechanical properties to advance information processing, transmission, and measurement.For example, quantum computation uses the quantum analog of a bit, called a quantum bit, existing in multiple states due toquantum superposition. Superposition allows quantum systems the ability to simultaneously occupy different quantum states. This fundamental principle means qubits are described as a linear combination of 0 and 1 (composition of basis states), and not solely 0 or 1 as in classical computing before measurement.
Quantum Artificial Intelligence (QAI)
This section does not attempt to explain AI and QIS intersections in detail. Both areas are so extensive that unifying concepts are difficult to understand. This post sees QAI as a different element of the taxonomy and not a subset of classical AI. “Quantum physics is based on information theory and probability theory” according to Andreas Wichert, author of Principles of Quantum Artificial Intelligence. He presents both theories in his book, highlighting quantum physics’ relationship to AI through associative memory and Bayesian networks. Associate memory and Bayesian networks are applied later to QAI based on their access to information.
Section 2 Overview
This section outlines interpretations of information and quantum theories and AI intersections. Information is a finite measurement of possible alternatives existing in the multiverse. Quantum computing has the potential for reversible or time-invertible deep learning and associative memory based on quantum entanglement and superposition. Quantum AI has the potential to test the multiverse theory, because QAI networks process, transmit, and measure information across space-time.
Information takes many forms that differ from one another, like natural language, symbols, acoustic speech, and pictures. The scientific notion of information is more precise.Information theory, proposed by Claude E. Shannon, studies the quantification, storage, and communication of information. Once again, Information does not measure what is known, it measures the number of possible alternatives for something.
Carlo Rovelli uses a dice example in his book Reality Is Not What It Seems: The Journey to Quantum Gravity to illustrate this point. If a dice is thrown, it can land on one of six sides. When we observe it fall on a number, we have an amount of information where N=6 because the possible alternatives are six. Instead of “N” (number of alternatives), scientists measure information in terms of quantity deemed “S” after Shannon. Rovelli also states information is finite in nature based on quantum mechanical properties. New or “relevant” information cancels out “irrelevant” information in a physical system, therefore systems can always obtain new information from other systems. *This point is important for later.
Measuring Possible Alternatives
The fundamental unit of classical information is a “bit.” The natural unit of information, or “nat,” is a unit of information orentropy. Information entropy is the average rate information is produced by a random source of data. Information entropy can be measured in bits, nats, or decimal digits, depending on the base logarithm defining it. Once again, a binary digit, characterized as 0 and 1, represents information in classical computing. A quantum bit, or “qubit,” is the basic unit of quantum information in the quantum world. A qubit can be acoherent superposition of both 0 and 1 eigenstates according to quantum mechanical properties. A qubit can also hold more information than a classical bit. Lastly, probability amplitudes are complex numbers. They are the probability of a qubit to appear in its basis states.
Quantum Machine Learning through Quantum Information
Quantum ANNs potentially enable deep learning from large quantities of qubits. Qubits are information, so they measure possible alternatives. Quantum ANNs are like Bayesian networks graphically modelling probabilistic relationships in this specific interpretation. The quantum nature of these networks expand access to reciprocal or correlated information.
An interpretation of reciprocal information is discussed through quantum mechanical properties and quantum many-worlds, also called“multiverse” theory in the last part of this post. This specific interpretation is multiverses are finite because information is. This is loosely based on Steven Hawking and Thomas Hertog’s April 2018 article,A smooth exit from internal inflation? where they state, “eternal inflation does not produce an infinite fractal-like multiverse, but is finite and reasonably smooth.”
Quantum Many Worlds
Quantum computing has the potential to allow reversible or time-invertible deep learning and associative memory, based on quantum entanglement and superposition. Qubits contain entangled relevant and irrelevant (anti-correlated probabilities) information across space-time. This concept ensures a retro-causality loop of finite information exchange. Quantum associative memory is the ability to learn and remember correlations between seemingly unrelated items. This is possible because all “items” are correlated through quantum phenomena. Relevant information in one world or universe (macro possible alternative) is simultaneously irrelevant information in the adjacent world because of quantum states and finite quantity of information in nature. Quantum information cannot be copied according to the no-cloning theorem. Conversely, it cannot be deleted based on a time reversed dual called the “no-deleting theorem.”
Information is the quanta of consciousness. It is a measurement of awareness following all possible trajectories through the quantum multiverse ensuring the feedback loop of finite information that is reality.
This specific interpretation is based on Hugh Everett’s relative state or many-worlds interpretation (MWI) and informationreality code concept. MWI states “allpossible alternate histories and futures are real, each representing an actual world” or universe. The reality code behaves similarly to classical coding. Coding theory is the application of information theory manifesting efficient and reliable data transmission in a non-deterministic manner (where meaning is relative). Information in a data set is characterized by its Shannon entropy.
Summary of Key Points (You made it!) • The QAI ecosystem is underpinned by the scientific notion of information • Information does not measure what is known, it measures the number of possible alternatives for something • Relevant information cancels out irrelevant information in a physical system, therefore systems can always obtain new information from other systems • A qubit can be a coherent superposition of both 0 and 1 eigenstates, according to quantum mechanical properties • Qubits contain entangled relevant and irrelevant information across the multiverse • MWI states all possible alternate histories and futures are real, each representing an “actual world” or universe • Multiverses are finite because information is • Information is the quanta of consciousness and measurement of awareness
One interpretation of AI iswhoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world. This is one possible alternative for QAI. Another possible alternative is the validation the many-worlds theory, providing insight into observable world alternate histories and optimized futures because information is available to QAI agent networks. The predictive nature of classical AI to support global superpower decision-making may not happen as planned either. Predictions in the observable world exist in other worlds, so AI predicting the observable future is relative. For example, when a dice lands on the number 1 in the observable world, it lands on the other five alternatives in alternate worlds. Additionally, unknown events in the observable world are known elsewhere in the quantum multiverse and vice versa (alternate histories and futures). Physicist David Deutsch, a proponent of the MWI, believes MWI will be testable throughquantum computing. Based on this blog’s conjecture, developing a parallel QAI strategy is the first step in preparing for our changing understanding of the world.
If you enjoyed this mind-bending post, please see Mr. Morris’ previous guest blog posts:
[Editor’s Note: In the following guest blog post, Mad Scientist Elsa B. Kania addresses quantum technology and the potential ramifications should the People’s Republic of China (PRC) win the current race in fielding operational quantum capabilities].
If China were to succeed in realizing the full potential of quantum technology, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might have the capability to offset core pillars of U.S. military power on the future battlefield. Let’s imagine the worst-case (or, for China, best-case) scenarios.
The Chinese military and government could leverage quantum cryptography and communications to enable “perfect security” for its most sensitive information and communications. The PLA may look to employ ‘uncrackable’ quantum key distribution (QKD), which involves the provably secure exchange of keys in quantum states, over fiber optic networks for secure command and control, while extending the range of its quantum networks to more far-flung units or even ships at sea, through an expanding constellation of quantum satellites.
If China were to ‘go dark’ to U.S. intelligence capabilities as a result, then a new level of uncertainty could complicate U.S. calculus and assessments, while exacerbating the risks of surprise or misperception in a crisis or conflict scenario.
China’s massive investments in quantum computing could succeed someday in the decadal marathon towards a fully functional and universal quantum computer.
If developed in secret or operational sooner than expected, then these immense computing capabilities could be unleashed to break public key cryptography. Such asymmetric cryptography, which today is quite prevalent and integral to the security of our information technology ecosystem, relies upon the difficulty of prime factorization, a task beyond the capabilities of today’s classical computers but that could be cracked by a future quantum computer. The impact could be analogous to the advantage that the U.S. achieved through the efforts of American code-breakers ahead of the Battle of Midway.
Although there will be options available for ‘quantum-proof’ encryption, the use of public key cryptography could remain prevalent in older military and government information systems, such as legacy satellites. Moreover, any data previously collected while encrypted could be rapidly decrypted and exploited, exposing perhaps decades of sensitive information. Will the U.S. military and government take this potential security threat seriously enough to start the transition to quantum-resistant alternatives?
Future advances in quantum computing could be game changers for intelligence and information processing. In a new era in which data is a critical resource, the ability to process it rapidly is at a premium. In theory, quantum computing could also accelerate the development of artificial intelligence towards a closer approximation to “superintelligence,” provoking concerns of unexpected, by some accounts even existential, risks and powerful capabilities.
Meanwhile, based on active efforts in the Chinese defense industry, the next generation of Chinese submarines could be equipped with a ‘quantum compass’ to enable greater precision in positioning and independence from space-based navigation systems, while perhaps also leveraging quantum communications underwater for secure control and covert coordination.
The PLA might realize its ambitions to develop quantum radar that could be the “nemesis” of U.S. stealth fighters and bolster Chinese missile defense. This “offset” technology could overcome the U.S. military’s advantage in stealth. Similarly, the ‘spooky’ sensitivity in detection enabled by techniques such as ghost imaging and quantum remote sensing could enhance PLA ISR capabilities.
In the aggregate, could China’s future advances in these technologies change the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific?
For China, the potential to disrupt paradigms of information dominance through quantum computing and cryptography, while perhaps undermining U.S. advantages in stealth technologies through quantum radar and sensing, and even more actively contesting the undersea domain, could create a serious challenge to U.S. military-technological predominance.
Perhaps, but this imagining of impactful military applications of quantum technology is far from a reality today. For the time being, these technologies still confront major constraints and limitations in their development.
It seems unlikely that quantum cryptography will ever enable truly perfect security, given the perhaps inevitable human and engineering challenges, along with remaining vulnerabilities to exploitation.
At present, quantum computing, while approaching the symbolic milestone of “quantum supremacy,” faces a long road ahead, due to challenges of scaling and error correction.
Certain quantum devices, for sensing, metrology, and positioning, may be quite useful but could enable fairly incremental, evolutionary improvements relative to the full range of alternatives.
There are also reasons to consider critically when Chinese official media discloses (especially in English) oft-hyped advances such as in quantum radar – since reporting on such apparent progress could be variously intended for purposes of signaling or perhaps even misdirection.
Although China’s advances and ambitions should be taken quite seriously – particularly considering the talent and resources evidently mobilized to advance these objectives – the U.S. military may also be well postured to leverage quantum technology on the future battlefield.
Inevitably, the timeframe for the actual operationalization of these technologies is challenging to evaluate, especially because a significant proportion of the relevant research may be occurring in secret.
For that reason, it is also difficult to determine with confidence whether the U.S. or China is truly leading in the advancement of various disciplines of quantum science.
Moreover, beyond concerns of competition between the U.S. and China, exciting research is occurring worldwide, from Canada and Europe to Australia, often with tech companies and start-ups at the forefront of the development and commercialization of these technologies.
Looking forward, the trajectory of this second quantum revolution will play out over decades to come. Future successes will require sustained investments, such as those China is actively pursuing in the range of tens of billions.
As the Chinese military and defense industry start testing and experimenting with quantum technology, the U.S. military should also explore further the potential – and evaluate the limitations – of these capabilities, including through deepening public-private partnership.
As China challenges American leadership ininnovation, the U.S. military and government should recognize the real risks of future surprises that could result from truly ‘made in China’ innovation, while also taking full advantage of the opportunities to impose surprise upon strategic competitors.
The above blog post is based on the recently publishedCenter for a New American Security (CNAS) report entitledQuantum Hegemony? – China’s Ambitions and the Challenges to U.S. Innovation Leadership, co-authored by Ms. Elsa Kania and Mr. John Costello. Mad Scientist believes that this report is the best primer on the current state of quantum technology. Note that quantum science – communication, computing, and sensing – was previously addressed by the Mad Scientist Laboratory as aPink Flamingo.
[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to present (somewhat belatedly) our July edition of “The Queue” – a monthly post listing the most compelling articles, books, podcasts, videos, and/or movies that the U.S. Army’s Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Mad Scientist Initiative has come across during the past month. In this anthology, we address how each of these works either informs or challenges our understanding of the Future Operational Environment. We hope that you will add “The Queue” to your essential reading, listening, or watching each month!]
Mr. Nicholson summarizes a recent presentation by one of our favorite Mad Scientists,P.W. Singer from New America. Mr. Singer warns that as more and more items are linked to the internet of things, the opportunities for nations and societies (also non-state actors andsuper-empowered individuals) to attack and be attacked become much broader. He states that “all of this technology does not mean that we will see humans eliminated from war anytime soon. Rather, just like the steam engine and the plane and the computer, we will see changes in the human skills that are most needed and less needed. This movement of people skills can and should change everything from our recruiting and training to our doctrine and organizational design.” This movement of people skills was a key aspect of last week’s Mad Scientist Learning in 2050 Conference, conducted at Georgetown University on 8 – 9 August. The demands on Leaders and skills required to compete in the changing character of war are probably fundamentally different. Mr. Singer challenges us to choose real change and not change just enough to fail. His example of the USS Arizona with its two catapult-launched float planes demonstrates a bureaucracy’s incremental approach in the face of revolutionary change. That change – modern bombers – made this once great warship a monument to a “Day that will live in Infamy.”
David Ignatius, famed spy novelist and Washington Post journalist, tackles not only espionage but also a multitude of disruptive technologiesin his new thriller, The Quantum Spy. The book revolves around a race towards leap-ahead developments in quantum computing between the United States and China; but a looming subplot is the cat and mouse game of counterintelligence, infiltration, and insertion of moles between the Central Intelligence Agency and the Chinese Ministry of State Security. CIA case officer and Army veteran Harris Chang struggles with his Chinese heritage, devotion to America, and the sometimes unscrupulous role of his organization in fighting to protect America’s secrets. The book is replete with detailed and accurate descriptions ofAmerican innovation efforts. The depiction of the infiltration on American college campuses and research institutions by foreign students being sponsored and often directed by foreign adversaries is alarming and timely given recent real-world events such as aChinese student taking groundbreaking work on metamaterials at Duke University back to his home country. The book raises important questions about the balance between open, collaborative innovation (that opens up a number of vulnerabilities) and more restrictive, government-funded research (that may be more secure), both of which are critical in the current Era of Accelerated Human Progress (now through 2035) as described inThe Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Future Warfare. Similarly to Agents of Innocence and Body of Lies, David Ignatius has created a work that not only features a fantastic story but that includes many government, military, and intelligence implications.
3. “War and the Human Brain” podcast with Dr. James Giordano and Mr. John Amble, Modern War Institute, 24 July 2018 (originally aired in 2017) – review by Marie Murphy.
Modern War Institute’s John Amble spoke with Dr. James Giordano about his research in neuroscience and using “the brain as a weapon” following his presentation at the Mad Scientist Visualizing Multi Domain Battle in 2030-2050 Conference, 25-26 July 2017, at Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. After a brief historical overview of neuroscience’s military applications, Dr. Giordano explains how recent research on electric and magnetic trans-cranial stimulation and implantable electrodes has opened up possibilities and controversies. Soldiers of the future could obtain modifications that improve memory, cognition, and vigilance while decreasing fatigue. Conversely, there is anethical dilemma when it comes to discontinuing, removing, or deactivating these improvements; there is concern regarding the Soldier potentially feeling disabled or disenabled afterwards. The discussion transitioned to the implications of “drugs, bugs, toxins, and tools,” all of which can have some kind of effect on neurological activity, and all of which can be weaponized. These capabilities, while not considered weapons of mass destruction, are categorized asweapons of mass disruption. These tools and technologies pose a real, rising threat in the future Operational Environment; are deployable by nation-states, non-state actors, andsuper-empowered individuals; and can be specifically targeted for optimal impact. Read more about these capabilities in the Mad Scientist Bio Convergence and Soldier 2050 Conference Final Report.
On 17 July 2018, the UK’s Nuffield Council on Bioethics issued apress release in conjunction with their publication ofGenome editing and human reproduction. The Council, established in 1991 to address ethical issues raised by new developments in biology and medicine, “concluded that editing the DNA of a human embryo, sperm, or egg to influence the characteristics of a future person (‘heritable genome editing’) could be morally permissible.” Futurism interpreted this as meaning we are “one step closer to designer babies,” and concluded it “is a promising sign for anyone eager for the day gene-editing lets them create the offspring of their dreams.” That said, the Council recommends two overarching principles governing the ethical use of heritable genome editing: “they must be intended to secure, and be consistent with, the welfare of the future person; and they should not increase disadvantage, discrimination or division in society.” The Council also noted that current British law precludes the genomic editing of embryos that are to be placed in a womb. So, no Brave New World in our future, right?
Not necessarily.… As Mr. Hank Greely, Professor of Law, Stanford University,pointed out this spring at our Mad Scientist Bio Convergence and Soldier 2050 Conference, we are on the cusp of being able to use skin cells to generate lines of viable embryos, which then may be subjected to Preimplantation Genetic Diagnoses prior to selection and implantation to preclude a host of genetic diseases and ensure healthier babies (who could possibly object to that?). With the advent of genetic editing and artificial wombs, we will be able to manipulate the genomic coding of any given embryo (initially to address genetic disease, but eventually to enhance capabilities), implant it, and then “decant” the resulting progeny. Sound farfetched? At the same conference, Ms. Elsa Kania, CNAS, noted that the PRC is currently gene editing human embryos and conducting human clinical trials. Their Bio-Google Initiative (BGI) is soliciting DNA from their geniuses in an attempt to understand the genomic basis for intelligence. With the advent of genetically enhanced humans, it is conceivable that we could face adversaries in the Deep Future Operational Environment with warrior caste soldiers, each modified genetically as embryos for greater strength, endurance, and combat performance in complex and extreme environments (e.g., high / low temperatures, low atmospheric pressures) and with optimized Brain Computer Interfaces. Previous regimes sought to populate their forces with “Supermen” — genomic editing may provide future regimes with the post-industrial means of accomplishing this objective “… by the lights of perverted science.”
Red Meat Games released its fifth virtual reality (VR) project, Bring to Light. Developers designed the VR horror game to push players to their terror limits with the help of a biometric sensor. Right now, Bring to Light is the first VR game to use biometric feedback to effect gameplay; it calls to mind the Black Mirror episode “Playtest,” a near-future cautionary tale of the risks associated with combining VR and Augmented Reality (AR) with gaming. In spite of this, AR and VR will become more integrated and player involved. As discussed in last month’seditionof “The Queue,” VR has the potential to also accelerate learning and enhance retention when used to train our Soldiers and Leaders.
Stanford University is working on a technology known as “Shapeshift” that presents users with a haptic “touch” interface that provides a bridge between VR and the physical world. Shapeshift is a high-resolution, compact, modular shape display consisting of 288 actuated pins (4.85mm×4.85mm, 2.8mm inter-pin spacing) formed by six 2×24 pin modules. It is reminiscent ofpin art toys played with by children and adults alike for years. The interface will allow users to truly feel the objects they see and interact with in VR, bringing about an entirely new level of immersion into constructed virtual or augmented worlds. The implications for accurate and intuitive modeling, design, simulation, and trainingare astounding. In the future, such interfaces could be utilized in vehicles, on or with weapons, and integrated in classrooms and other training venues.
Engineers from Tufts University have re-designed the bandage with the intent of taking it from a passive treatment to an active treatment for chronic wounds. These skin wounds can be from burns, diabetes, or other medical conditions that overwhelm the normal regenerative capabilities of the skin. The bandage monitors the pH and temperature and can administer drugs when either goes out of normal range. While the bandage treats only certain chronic skin conditions at present, it is easy to see future implications of this technology, especially in Soldiers on the battlefield. Persistent or serious wounds can be monitored and treated in real-time without needing to take the Soldier out of the fight or waiting for medical advice and treatment from a professional. This could reduce cost and recovery time. What is the next step beyond smart bandages? Will it be feasible to have general health sensors and a variety of treatments embedded on the Soldier in the future?
If you read, watch, or listen to something this month that you think has the potential to inform or challenge our understanding of the Future Operational Environment, please forward it (along with a brief description of why its potential ramifications are noteworthy to the greater Mad Scientist Community of Action) to our attention at: firstname.lastname@example.org — we may select it for inclusion in our next edition of “The Queue”!
[Editor’s Note: Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to publish our latest iteration of “The Queue” – a monthly post listing the most compelling articles, books, podcasts, videos, and/or movies that the U.S. Army’s Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Mad Scientist Initiative has come across during the previous month. In this anthology, we address how each of these works either informs or challenges our understanding of the Future Operational Environment. We hope that you will add “The Queue” to your essential reading, listening, or watching each month!]
There are no facts about the future and the future is not a linear extrapolation from the present. We inherently understand this about the future, but Leaders oftentimes seek to quantify the unquantifiable. Eliot Peper opens his Harvard Business Review article with a story about one of the biggest urban problems in New York City at the end of the 19th century – it stank! Horses were producing 45,000 tons of manure a month. The urban planners of 1898 convened a conference to address this issue, but the experts failed to find a solution. More importantly, they could not envision a future 14 years hence, when cars would outnumber horses. The urban problem of the future was not horse manure, but motor vehicle-generated pollution and road infrastructure. All quantifiable data available to the 1898 urban planners only extrapolated to more humans, horses, and manure. It is likely that any expert sharing an assumption about cars over horses would have been laughed out of the conference hall. Flash forward a century and the number one observation from the 9/11 Commission was that the Leaders and experts responsible for preventing such an attack lacked imagination. Story tellingand the science fiction genre allow Leaders to imaginebeyond the numbers and broaden the assumptions needed to envision possible futures. Story telling also helps Leaders and futurists to envision the human context around emerging technologies. For more on Science Fiction and futuring, watch Dr. David Brin‘s Mad Scientistpresentation.
2. “Automated Valor,” by August Cole, Proceedings Magazine, U.S. Naval Institute, May 2018.
Fellow Mad Scientist August Cole’s short story, commissioned by the British Army Concepts Branch, explores the future of urban warfare from a refreshingly new, non-US perspective. Sparking debate about force development and military operations in the 2030s, this story portrays a vivid combat scenario in a world where autonomous weapons have proliferated. Mr. Cole’s story embraces a number of Future Operational Environment themes familiar to Mad Scientists, including combat leadership andteam identity(Soldier and machine),human trust of AI decision-making, virtual and earned citizenship,deep fakes, small unittactical operations, and multi-national Joint operations against an expansionist Chinese super power. Visualizing the future fight from this British Commonwealth perspective provides a new twist in story telling, describing what it will mean to be a Soldier on the battlefield in 2039, depending on machine teammates in the close fight.
3. Altered Carbon, Netflix series, 2018 (based upon a 2002 novel by Richard K. Morgan) — submitted by Mad Scientist Pat Filbert.
Set 300+ years in a futuristic Earth, the show’s main character, or more to the point, his “cortical stack” (alien technology, reverse-engineered for human use that records the sum total of an individual’s consciousness) has been “imprisoned” for 250 years and is “released” back into the general population to solve a mysterious murder. At this time, AI exists in and fully interactswith both the physical and cyber domains. The show incorporates a number of aspects related totrust in AI and technology. Such aspects enable a future where combat is fought by “stored soldiers” on distant worlds using advanced technological capabilities. Some humans have accepted AI projections as near-peers, so the trust factor comes up repeatedly between the humans who accept and embrace this technology and those who remain skeptical, like Will Smith’s character inI, Robot. The implications of AI becoming sentient and capable of violence are at the core of the morality argument against AI technology. The popular acceptance of AI possessing human-like qualities would definitely be a “leap forward” in more than just technology. For additional insights on this topic, watch Mad Scientist Linda MacDonald Glenn‘s presentation.
4. “SOCOM’s Top 10 Technologies“ Podcast, National Defense Magazine, National Defense Industry Association, 3 May 2018 — submitted by Marie Murphy.
This podcast provides a summary of some of the primary emerging technologies that the United States Special Operations Command (SOCOM) and the Department of Defense are developing for military application. In the immediate future — exoskeletons and commercial drone use; in the deep future — quantum computing and China‘s rise to dominate the microelectronics market by 2030 are highlighted in the list. Stew Magnuson, Editor-in-Chief of National Defense Magazine, states that technology is nearing the end of the applicability of Moore’s Law. Due to this, a major consideration for the development of new scientific and technical advancements is private, profit-driven industry, which will certainly be responsible for future cutting-edge technologies. Given that many innovations the military uses or seeks to apply now stem from private sector innovation, what happens when Moore’s Lawexpires and technology moves too quickly for military research and adaptation?
Researchers analyzed the decision-making habits of gamers that play League of Legendsin order to identify and build mental models. Identifying these models will help understand how they are built and, more importantly, how they change over time as players gain proficiency from novice to expert. The researchers analyzed survey responses based on the game and compared the differences between novices, journeymen, and experts. There were clear differences in the way the mental models were organized based on experience, with experts making abstract connections and even showing signs of subnetworks. The researchers plan to use this information for better game design and the development / tailoring of training programs. The Army could leverage the potential of these mental models with neural feedback to accelerate Soldier learning, breaking the tyranny of the 10,000 hour rule of expertise. That said, this information could also prove to be a weapon in the hands of an adversary. What happens to game theory if the adversary knows how your mind works, what your proclivities are, and what courses of action you are likely to favor? What happens if the adversary can identify, based on your actions, who in your unit is a novice and who is an expert, and targets them accordingly (i.e., focusing on defeating the experts first, while leaving the less experienced)? Accessing this information could provide an adversary with an advantage that may prove the difference between success and defeat. Learn more about cognitive enhancement in fellow Mad Scientist Dr. Amy Kruse’s podcast, Human 2.0, hosted by our colleagues at Modern War Institute.
Researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, have exploited mainstream commercial Artificial Intelligence (AI) assistants (e.g., Siri, Alexa, Google Assistant) in order to secretly send commands. The researchers were able to send secret messages to the devices that were embedded in an existing audio track that were undetectable to the human ear. The track could be played and the AI could be told to do any number of things, from transferring money, to adding an item to a shopping list, or opening a malicious website. The adversarial applications of this are immense and abundant. A nefariousactor could surreptitiously activate a device, mute it, and then send and receive information stored on it or even use it to unlock doors, start cars, or call other devices. As the Army becomes more reliant on AI and automation, its vulnerability toPersonalized Warfareattacks via these axes will increase. Will the Army ever be able to use voice activated devices that can be so easily compromised by an undetectable source?
At a recent workshop, the Mad Scientist community was informed of the constraints associated with neural embedded man-machine interfaces – namely, conventional electrode materials will degrade relatively quickly via corrosion brought on by the human brain’s inflammatory immune system response. This challenge may have been overcome by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University, funded by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), who have developed a “flexible, squishy silicon-based hydrogel that sticks to neural tissue, bringing non-invasive electrodes to the brain’s surface.” As a tissue analog, this hydrogel is less likely to trigger the brain’s natural defensive response, thus potentially revolutionizing the integration of prosthetics and medical devices with patients’ brains. As with most disruptive technologies, preliminary niche applications (in this case, medical) may jump, initially to the edge, then possibly ripple throughout society. The advent of hydrogel-based electrodes has the potential to accelerate the current transhumanism movement and facilitate direct brain-machine interfaces, as envisioned in Mr. Howard Simkin’s Sine Paripost. Projected forward, the possibility of an Internet of Everything and Everyone may prove to be a two-edged sword, facilitating both the direct upload of knowledge on demand, and the direct hacking of individuals.
If you read, watch, or listen to something this month that you think has the potential to inform or challenge our understanding of the Future Operational Environment, please forward it (along with a brief description of why its potential ramifications are noteworthy to the greater Mad Scientist Community of Action) to our attention at: email@example.com — we may select it for inclusion in our next edition of “The Queue”!
The Mad Scientist Initiative recently facilitated a workshop with thought leaders from across the Department of Defense, the Intelligence Community, other Government agencies, industry, and academia to address the unknown, unknowns (i.e., Black Swans) and the known, knowns (i.e., Pink Flamingos) to synthesize cross-agency thinking about possible disruptions to the Future Operational Environment.
Black Swans: In Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s original context, a black swan (unknown, unknowns) is an event or situation which is unpredictable, but has a major effect. For this conference, we used a looser definition, identifying possibilities that are not likely, but might have significant impacts on how we think about warfighting and security.
Pink Flamingos: Defined by Frank Hoffman, Pink Flamingos are the known, knowns that are often discussed, but ignored by Leaders trapped by organizational cultures and rigid bureaucratic decision-making structures. Peter Schwartz further describes Pink Flamingos as the “inevitable surprise.” Digital photography was a pink flamingo to Kodak.
At the workshop, attendees identified the following Black Swans:
• Naturally Occurring Disaster: These events (i.e., Carrington Event — solar flare frying solid state electronics, super volcano eruptions, earthquake swarms, etc.) would have an enormous impact on the Army and its ability to continue to operate and defend the nation and support national recovery operations. While warning times have increased for many of these events, there are limited measures that can be implemented to mitigate the devastating effects of these events.
• Virtual Nations: While the primacy of Westphalian borders has been challenged and the power of traditional nation-states has been waning over the last decade, some political scientists have assumed that supranational organizations and non-state actors would take their place. One potential black swan is the emergence of virtual nations due to the convergence of blockchain technologies, crypto-currency, and the ability to project power and legitimacy through the virtual world. Virtual nations could be organized based on ideologies, business models, or single interests. Virtual nations could supersede, supplement, or compete with traditional, physical nations. The Army of the future may not be prepared to interact and compete with virtual nations.
• Competition in Venues Other than Warfare (Economic, Technological, Demographic, etc.) Achieving Primacy: In the near future, war in the traditional sense may be less prevalent, while competitions in other areas may be the driving forces behind national oppositions. How does the Army need to prepare for an eventuality where armed conflict is not as important as it once was?
• Alternate Internet — “Alternet”: A distinct entity, separate from the general commercial internet, only accessible with specific corresponding hardware. This technology would allow for unregulated and unmonitored communication and commerce, potentially granting safe haven to criminal and terrorist activities.
At the workshop, attendees identified the following Pink Flamingos:
• Safe at Home: Army installations are no longer the sanctuaries they once were, as adversaries will be able to attack Soldiers and families through social media and other cyberspace means. Additionally, installations no longer merely house, train, and deploy Soldiers — unmanned combat systems are controlled from home installations -— a trend in virtual power that will increase in the future. The Army needs a plan to harden our installations and train Soldiers and families to be resilient for this eventuality.
• Hypersonics: High speed (Mach 5 or higher) and highly maneuverable missiles or glide vehicles that can defeat our air defense systems. The speed of these weapons is unmatched and their maneuverability allows them to keep their targets unknown until only seconds before impact, negating current countermeasures.
• Generalized, Operationalized Artificial Intelligence (AI):Artificial intelligence is one of the most prominent pink flamingos throughout global media and governments. Narrow artificial intelligence is being addressed as rapidly as possible through ventures such as Project MAVEN. However, generalized and operationalized artificial intelligence – that can think, contextualize, and operate like a human – has the potential to disrupt not only operations, but also the military at its very core and foundation.
• Space/Counterspace: Space is becoming increasingly congested, commercialized, and democratized. Disruption, degradation, and denial in space threatens to cripple multi-domain warfare operations. States and non-state actors alike are exploring options to counter one another, compete, and potentially even fight in space.
• Quantum Sciences: Quantum science – communication, computing, and sensing – has the potential to solve some intractable but very specific problem sets. Quantum technology remains in its infancy. However, as the growth of qubits in quantum computing continues to expand, so does the potentiality of traditional encryption being utterly broken. Quantum sensing can allow for much more precise atomic clocks surpassing the precision timing of GPS, as well as quantum imaging that provides better results than classical imaging in a variety of wavelengths.
• Bioweapons/Biohacking: The democratization of bio technology will mean that super-empowered individuals as well as nation states will have the ability to engineer weapons and hacks that can augment friendly human forces or target and degrade enemy human forces (e.g., targeted disease or genetic modifications).
• Personalized Warfare: Warfare is now waged on a personal level, where adversaries can attack the bank accounts of Soldiers’ families, infiltrate their social media, or even target them specifically by their genetics. The Army needs to understand that the individual Soldier can be exploited in many different ways, often through information publicly provided or stolen.
• Deep Fakes/Information Warfare: Information warfare and “fake news” have played a prominent role in global politics over the last several years and could dominate the relationship between societies, governments, politicians, and militaries in the future operational environment. Information operations, thanks to big data and humanity’s ever-growing digital presence, are targeted at an extremely personal and specific level. One of the more concerning aspects of this is an artificial intelligence-based human image/voice synthesis technique known as deep fakes. Deep fakes can essentially put words in the mouths of prominent or trusted politicians and celebrities.
• Multi-Domain Swarming: Swarming is often thought about in terms of unmanned aerial systems (UAS), but one significant pink flamingo is swarming taking place across multiple domains with self-organizing, autonomous aerial, ground, maritime (sub and surface), and even subterranean unmanned systems. U.S. defense systems on a linear modernization and development model will not be capable of dealing with the saturation and complexity issues arising from these multi-domain swarms.
• Lethal Autonomy: An autonomous system with the ability to track, target, and fire without the supervision or authority of a human in/on the loop. The U.S. Army will have to examine its own policy regarding these issues as well as our adversaries, who may be less deterred by ethical/policy issues.
• Tactical Nuclear Exchange: While strategic nuclear war and mutually assured destruction have been discussed and addressed ad nauseam, not enough attention has been given to the potential of a tactical nuclear exchange between state actors. One tactical nuclear attack, while not guaranteeing a nuclear holocaust, would bring about a myriad of problems for U.S. forces worldwide (e.g., the potential for escalation, fallout, contamination of water and air, and disaster response). Additionally, a high altitude nuclear burst’s electromagnetic pulse has the potential to fry solid state electronics across a wide-area, with devastating results to the affected nation’s electrical grid, essential government services, and food distribution networks.
Leaders must anticipate these future possibilities in determining the character of future conflicts and in force design and equipping decisions. Using a mental model of black swans and pink flamingos provides a helpful framework for assessing the risks associated with these decisions.
(Editor’s Note: While war will remain an enduring human endeavor for the foreseeable future, engaging human networks will require a greater understanding of robotics, artificial intelligence, autonomy, and the Internet of Everything. Future battlefield networks at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels will leverage these aforementioned technologies to radically change the character of war, increasing the reach, speed, and lethality of conflict. Mad Scientist Laboratory is pleased to present the following guest blog post by Mr. Victor R. Morris, addressing the global implications of human-machine teaming.)
The character of war, strategy development, and operational level challenges are changing; therefore operational approaches must do the same. Joint Publication 3-25 Countering Threat Networks includes versatile lines of effort to identify, neutralize, disrupt, or destroy threat networks. These efforts correspond with engaging diverse networks to reach mission objectives within the overall Network Engagement strategy. Network Engagement consists of three components: partnering with friendly networks, engaging neutral networks, and Countering Threat Networks (CTN).
To successfully engage networks and achieve the desired effects, more advanced human-machine collaborative networks need to be understood and evaluated. Human-machine networks are defined by the integration of autonomy and narrow artificial intelligence to accelerate processes, collective understanding, and effects. These networks exist in military operational systems and within interrelated diplomatic, information, and economic systems.
This post analyzes collaborative networks using Network Engagement’s Partnering, Engaging and Countering (PEC) model. The intent is to outline a requirement for enhanced Network Engagement involving human-machine collaboration. An enhanced approach accelerates Joint and multinational engagement capabilities to achieve cross-domain effects in a convergent operational environment. Cross-domain effects are achieved through synchronized capabilities and overmatch in the interconnected physical domains, information environment, and cyberspace.
PEC Model: Partnering with friendly networks, engaging neutral networks, and countering threat networks
The Multi-Domain Battle concept addresses the extended battlefield and large-scale combat through Joint reconnaissance, offensive, and defensive operations to reach positions of relative advantage.
Collective defense treaties and Joint security cooperation consist of both foreign internal defense and security force assistance to deter conflict. Foreign internal defense, when approved, involves combat operations during a state of war.
First, Joint Forces may be required to partner with host nation forces and engage hostile elements with offensive operations to return the situation to a level controllable by the host nation. Additionally, defensive tasks may be required to counter the enemy’s offense and engage the population and interconnected “internet of things.” Protection determines which threats disrupt operations and the rule of law, and then counters or mitigates those threats. Examples of specific collaborative and networked threats include cyber attacks, electronic attack, explosive hazards, improvised weapons, unmanned aerial and ground systems, and weapons of mass destruction. Battle networks are technologically enhanced Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) human-machine combat capabilities that integrate defense systems for territorial defense and/or protected coercive activities.
Furthermore, countering networks requires an understanding of great powers competition and political ends. Geopolitical competitors develop strategies across the continuum of conflict relative to rival advantages and national interests. These strategies emphasize both direct and indirect approachesacross all domains to reach political ends. A mixed approach facilitates statecraft and unbounded policy to offset perceived disadvantages, deliver key narratives, and shape international norms.
The collaborative networks that possess distinctive ways to achieve political objectives include:
1) Conventional Joint and irregular proxy forces with integrated air, ground, and sea defense capabilities
Client states and proxy networks present significant challenges for Joint and multinational alliances when used as a key component of a competitor’s grand strategy. Proxy networks, however, are not limited to non-state paramilitary or insurgent networks. These un-attributable organizations also include convergent terrorist, transnational organized crime, and international hacker organizations.
Multinational companies, political parties, and civic groups also act as proxy networks with access to high-end technologies and geo-economic capabilities. Geo-economics refers to the use of economic instruments to manipulate geopolitical objectives. These networks then either blend and cooperate or compete with other proxy actors, based on various motivations and incentives.
Adversaries will also use artificial intelligence networks as proxies to deliver more deniable and innovative attacks. The efficacy of multi-domain networks with human-machine teaming correlates to partnering, engaging, and countering activities designed to shape, deter, and win.
Finally, operational approaches designed to force critical factors analysis, decision-making, and assessments are critical to understanding human and technologically-enabled 21st century competition and conflict. The Joint Operational Area must be assessed as one extended domain with resilient strategic network configurations designed to partner with, engage, and counter diverse systems.
Mission command through human-machine teaming, networks, and systems integration is inevitable and will leverage human adaptability, automated speed, and precision as future capabilities. The global competition for machine intelligence dominance is becoming a key element of both the changing character of war and technical threat to strategic stability.
Modifying doctrine to account for advances in autonomy, narrow artificial intelligence, and quantum computing is inevitable, and human-machine teaming has global implications.
Headquarters, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) is co-sponsoring the Bio Convergence and Soldier 2050 Conference with SRI International at Menlo Park, California, on 08-09 March 2018. This conference will be live-streamed; click here to watch the proceedings, starting at 0840 PST / 1140 EST on 08 March 2018. Ms. Elsa Kania, Adjunct Fellow, Center for New American Security (CNAS), will address “People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Human-Machine Integration” on Day 2 (09 March 2018) of the Conference.
Victor R. Morris is a civilian irregular warfare and threat mitigation instructor at the Joint Multinational Readiness Center (JMRC) in Germany.